OUTLOOK
"Treasuries Rally Longer Than Expected"
4/18/2008
 
In our Outlook on 11/13/07, we were bearish on Long-Term US Treasuries and expected the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note to rise to 4.35% or more within 8 weeks.  Long-Term US Treasuries did not decline as we expected.  Instead of rising, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note declined well below 4%.      
 
At the time of our Outlook, we viewed yields as artificially low due to a flight to safety into bonds during the subprime crisis.  Rather than being a short-term phenomenon, the flight to safety into bonds has persisted over the last few months as investors have fleed stocks in the face of a weakening economy, falling housing market, and soaring commodity prices.  Despite their safe haven status, we do not believe Treasuries offer a good value at this time given that they yield less than the rate of inflation. 
 
Mark Yuan, CFA