OUTLOOK

"Crude Oil Declines as Forecasted"

8/6/2007

In our Outlook on 7/17/07, we stated, "We believe Crude Oil is due for a decline of at least 4% from its peak level."  We said this correction would occur within 6 weeks.

Our forecast was correct.  On 7/31/07, Crude Oil peaked to close at 78.21.  From this peak level, Crude Oil declined over 7% to close at 72.06 on 8/6/07.

Mark Yuan, CFA