OUTLOOK
"Bearish on Long-Term US Treasuries"
9/4/2007
 
We believe the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note will rise to 4.65% or more within the next 8 weeks.
 
Our last Bearish Signal on US Treasuries was recorded in our Outlook on 3/6/07.  Similar to our signal on 3/6/07, the current readings of our bond system are showing extremes in bullish sentiment and overbought conditions in the 10-Year Treasury Note as a result of flight to safety buying.  As they did in March of 2007, we believe these conditions will unwind and cause bond prices to fall and yields to rise.  Based on our Bearish Outlook on US Treasuries, we have taken short positions to profit from a rise in long-term treasury rates.
 
Mark Yuan, CFA