OUTLOOK

"A Crude Oil Correction at Last"

11/30/2007

In our Outlook on 9/14/07, we forecasted that Crude Oil would correct at least 4% from its peak level within 6 weeks.  Crude Oil finally corrected but it took longer than we expected.  From a peak closing price of 98.18 on 11/23/07, Crude Oil declined nearly 10% to close at 88.71 on 11/30/07.  Overall, we took a loss on this trade since Crude Oil rallied against us before it finally corrected in late November.

Mark Yuan, CFA